NIGERIA NEWS :: THE OPTIMIST VOICE

Archives on Optimist Voice's Conference October 31, 2009

leaders to express their interest and people will be actively mobilised for any cause they stand for hence I see no way for the party of government having the chance to change the will of the people and with a massive turnout people will reject Jonathan. Though the political fixers in the PDP may assume that they can use force to actualise their project it may not be feasible to turn the security apparatuses against the collective will of the people as those in the security apparatuses also have responsibility and I don’t think if they will be willing to be used to destroy their parents, brothers and sisters just to satisfy the aspiration of their benefactor. So also is the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Those who conduct the election are Nigerians and I wonder if they can be used to change figures for the ruling party anymore with the assumption of Professor Jega who has the confidence of most Nigerians.

The credibility of INEC has been at stake based on its dismal conduct in previous elections and it is assumed that lessons have been learnt from its past mistakes. All the electoral loopholes had been documented and I know that politicians are currently making efforts to avoid future occurrence of massive electoral fraud perpetuated by the ruling party. The past experience was only able to succeed because most politicians who then supported the PDP decided to turn a blind eye on such misconduct but now that they are no longer in support I don’t think it will work.

Another likely plot of the PDP fixers may focus on total votes cast in the forthcoming election. It is expected that they will come out with millions of votes from the South - South for the PDP candidate but that too will be crushed by the turnout from the South East, South-West and the North entirely. From whatever angle you look at the forthcoming elections it works against the aspiration of Jonathan and his political jobbers who are too keen in carrying on with the project and they are only going to succeed in one thing, exposing themselves as politically irrelevant in Nigeria.

Those currently spearheading the Jonathan project may hijack the PDP and mislead the President that they will deliver but the fact remains that there is no cutting corners in general elections. Experience has shown that Nigerians cannot be short changed by those who think that they can use the power of incumbency to force their way back to political office. Since the wise counsel of the numerous well meaning Nigerians that advised for the adoption of the zoning formula is likely to be disregarded and ignored then the only thing that will best suit those against zoning is facing electoral defeat which is imminent. Though no one is anticipating a fair playing field but one is optimistic that voters will be vigilant and hence they may safeguard their vote and ensure that only candidates they truly voted were returned as winners.

However it is still not too late for the PDP as a party to be salvaged and that is only possible if the proponents of anti zoning drop their plot and continue with power sharing agreement and conduct a free and fair party congress that will see to the emergence of candidates for public offices and party positions or else the party becomes Jonathan’s palaver just as the gaffe he made on his hasty stand on our national football team.

NIGERIA NEWS

Nigerian Politics, PDP and Future of

Jonathan ...July 10, 2010

Abba Bashir Shuwa

Leeds, U K

If recent events are anything to go by all the major political parties in Nigeria that have formed government at one level or the other since 1999 till date are gradually heading for the rocks and the biggest casualty being the Peoples Democratic Party PDP. Most political observers are aware that PDP as a party is divided against itself and this division within has caused a lot of suspicion in its ranks which has the potential of withdrawal of its foundation members from the party. Apart from its members that are likely to opt out it may even lose some of its recent returnees and elected office holders may buy time holding on to see how events of the plot to impose Goodluck Jonathan as the party’s presidential flag bearer will turn out before taking their final decision.

Though PDP may boast of being the party of government what it currently failed to realise is that in a democracy government is formed by the people and when people begin to desert the party en masse it will certainly fail to win and become the next party of government. Political observers in Nigeria are of the opinion that it is difficult to defeat a party that controls government machinery and it is on the basis of this assumption that the current leadership of the PDP is trying to coerce its members to abandon its zoning agreement on the ground that it has an incumbent who is not going to personally benefit from that agreement if it is upheld by the party.

But as of now Nigerians pretty well know that even with the control of government and its machineries the PDP is vulnerable and certainly will not win election without the support of some key Nigerian figures that have been instrumental to its previous electoral successes. If things go on as they are now over the zoning issue and Jonathan decides to contest then the country will witness the emergence of new political realignments that would within a short come up with a big avalanche of supporters from all across Nigeria and chase Jonathan out of power in an unprecedented manner.

The Nigerian public is politically active and enlightened and also respect their opinion leaders. You speak to most opinion leaders in Nigeria about the ruling party’s stand on power rotation and all you hear is regrets. However once again their time has come with an election in sight and this time they have vowed not to be fooled. Nigerians will work in unison to sound a resounding no to the usurpation of power by those who cannot honour a valid agreement reached by their party. Any attempt to make Jonathan PDP flag bearer will therefore wreck PDP and make it a mere sectional party and expose its leaders as those who betray trust and therefore not fit for position of responsibility.

One agenda that is gaining ground in Nigeria now is the agenda to conduct free and fair election in 2011. If Jonathan succeeds with changing the PDP zoning agreement and uses his position to take control of the PDP machinery, then we will have more and more politicians from diverse interests coming together on a different platform which will provide room for new alliances. Consequently we may witness the merging of some registered parties to pursue a common objective which is to produce the next president from the north and allow the south have its term in 2015 again.

As long as mobilisation is concerned it just takes the word of mouth to be passed and you see the people coming out and showing themselves to be counted. It only takes for the opinion