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The Fuel Subsidy Trigger
Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde
…November 19. 2011
President Jonathan represents a paradox. He is always quick to plead for
leniency in expectations. "I am not David...or an army general", he declared in
a church service two months ago. He only abides by the Hidden Hand of destiny
that made him the President, he explained. With this property, one expects him
to be passive and less ambitious than his predecessors who attempted to play
God.
His actual ambitions, however, defy his unassuming mien. He has so far proposed
two projects that have demystified three powerful generals before him. Amidst
serious national security challenges that confined him to the Villa, the
President proposed to the National Assembly the one-term elongated tenure bill.
Though I reliably learned that the proposal was indeed borne out of his long
standing conviction that second tenure kills executive initiatives and that he
does not intend to benefit from it, the President was just too simple in hoping
that his good intention alone was enough to overcome the public skepticism that
would kill the bill even before it reaches the floor of the parliament,
particularly when the memories of Obasanjo’s Third Term agenda are still fresh.
Where does the bill stand right now? What made the President hope that he would
succeed where the generals failed?
Removal of fuel subsidy is another task that has defeated generals before
Jonathan. This ambition has so far survived every President since Babangida,
except Shonekan and Abdulsalami Abubakar whose sleeps were too brief to
entertain the dream. In the end, those generals consoled themselves with
increasing pump price when they failed to remove the subsidy completely. This
President is again giving it a shot and his attempt is already greeted with
deafening protests from every Nigerian outside the executive arm of government.
Nigerians are neither attracted by the pretext of his argument nor lured by its
promise.
Telling Nigerians that money 'saved' from the subsidy will be used to advance
their welfare is an old tale narrated by previous administrations. It was told
by moonlight; by dawn it was gone. Nigerians are not ready to squander their
hope on what they perceive as another empty promise, especially given the
lightening speed with which the notorious Governors Forum approved it.
The pretext is more compelling to rejection. The teacher in the President
exposed him to divulge that the removal is necessary to deny the syndicate of
oil importers the bumper harvest of N800billion annually. This invited Nigerians
to wonder why a President and Commander in Chief would choose curb a corrupt
practice by punishing its victims and pardoning the culprits.
His meeting with members of National Assembly yesterday was an eye opener to the
impossibility of his task. They will kill it on the floor of the house as they
killed the 'Sad Term' of Obasanjo. Other Nigerians will be waiting. Labour in
particular has made it categorically clear that it will fight the increase to
the last man. Ordinary Nigerians may take to the streets. The President may not
find supporters even among the clergy that dignified every mistake he committed
before. The support by the President of the Christian Association of Nigeria was
met with immediate dissociation from his members. The cleric had to disclaim it
unreservedly, realizing that unlike during the elections, Nigerians cannot be
persuaded to empty their pockets at the altar of religious sentiment. It seems
that the President has crossed the line.
There are unverified reports that the President is even threatening to resign
should the proposal fail. I am not worried that much because in spite of his
strong conviction on the necessity of removing the subsidy the President will
soon yield to abandon it. As he retreats, he may find consolation that even
generals have retreated from that front. Or as Abu Zaid would coin it in The
Assemblies of al-Hariri:
"If your request is turned down, do not feel ashamed. Verily Musa and Khidr were
turned down before."
As they sleep in the cozy beds of the Villa, Nigerian Presidents are bound to
have all sorts of dreams, good and bad. That of removing fuel subsidy is a bad
one, Jonathan must know. He must also be wise enough to make his ambition a
function of his capacity. He must know his limits and abide by them. By this
measure, a wise counsel will tell the President to forget removing the fuel
subsidy. Instead, he should use the instrument of law to fight the cartel that
is feeding fat on the blood of the lean Nigetian masses. It is better to die a
martyr of a just cause than waste his time pursuing a bad dream.
However, should the President persist and effect the removal, I am afraid that
it may just be the Bouazizi trigger we waiting for so long. In that case the
paradox of the President would be a blessing to celebrate. So much fuel has
accumulated on the floor of the Nigerian political forest. The spark needed to
start its conflagration may just be around. From its ashes a better nation may
sprout again.
(c) The Optimist Voice. All Rights Reserved.
